Patience...

Once again I remind myself that patience is a virtue. The financial community is talking themselves into a higher market but only the market will tell us if that will happen.

I predict that the market will fail to break through the important 11,782 level, to any great extent, and will then proceed to eat away at bullish sentiment over the course of 2011 with completely unexpected action that will keep people hopeful and in the market, waiting for the next big up move. The rally out of the March 2009 lows was just a big setup that will be the cause of much more wealth destroyed than created. That's what secular bear markets do.

Should the stock market break through I will certainly revise my outlook. For now it continues to eat away at the confidence of bears and only those who fully understand history, what a secular bear market is, and how massive this one is, will be able to profit.

--Fred

Waiting...

It is looking like Friday or even Monday will provide the strike I've been waiting for as the stock market seems to have set up this little counter trend rally perfectly.

I expect sentiment to rise once again with the holiday cheer and stock market bounce and we will then have a perfect two week window in which to pull off the real counter trend retreat back below 11,000 on the Dow.

Whatever position I take I will likely keep a fairly tight stop on it; more on that when the trade is actually made.

--Fred